Weighted Pipeline Forecast Calculator
A sales forecast weighted by where each deal sits — deal values and stage probabilities as two lists — with the unweighted pipeline, the coverage against a quota, and the deals still needed to close the gap.
A pipeline of ten deals is not ten wins.
How the weighted pipeline forecast calculator works
A pipeline of ten deals is not ten wins. Each stage carries a probability learned from history — a qualified lead at 10%, a proposal at 40%, a verbal at 80% — and the weighted forecast is the sum of value times probability. Coverage is unweighted pipeline over quota, and three times is the usual rule of thumb; the gap after the weighted forecast is what has to be found, in deals of the average size.
Formula: forecast = Σ valueᵢ × probabilityᵢ; coverage = Σ value / quota; gap = quota − forecast
Worked examples
| Inputs | Weighted forecast | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Seven deals against a 150,000 quota | 109,800 | a gap, well covered |
| Late-stage pipeline | 207,700 | forecast covers the quota |
| A bigger quota | 109,800 | thin coverage |
FAQFrequently asked questions
What is a weighted pipeline?
The sum of each deal's value times its chance of closing. It turns a hopeful list into an expected value, which is what a forecast should be.
Where do the probabilities come from?
From history: the share of deals at each stage that eventually closed. Ten per cent at qualification, 25 at proposal, 60 at negotiation and 90 at verbal commitment are common starting points.
What is pipeline coverage?
Unweighted pipeline over quota. Three times is the usual rule for a healthy period; below two, the quota is at risk however good the forecast looks.
Why does the expected number of wins matter?
Because 3.4 expected wins from seven deals means the forecast depends on a handful of outcomes. The fewer the deals, the wider the range around the forecast.
Should I weight by stage or by rep judgement?
Stage probabilities from history are more honest than optimism. If a rep knows something the stage does not, adjust that deal's probability and say why.
Where these figures come from
- Reichheld (2003), Harvard Business Review — The One Number You Need to Grow — the paper that introduced Net Promoter Score
- Financial Reporting Council — the UK accounting regulator
Last checked: September 2026. These are the industry-standard definitions; where companies commonly disagree, the page says so.