Subscription Box Economics Calculator
Whether a subscription box makes money — contribution per shipment, lifetime value against acquisition cost, and the churn that decides it.
Each shipment contributes price less goods, packaging and shipping.
How the subscription box economics calculator works
Each shipment contributes price less goods, packaging and shipping. Lifetime value is that contribution times the average number of shipments, which is one divided by the monthly churn rate.
Subscription commerce lives or dies on churn. At 10% monthly churn the average subscriber lasts ten months; at 5% they last twenty. That single number doubles or halves the entire business.
Formula: LTV = contribution per box / monthly churn
Worked examples
| Inputs | Contribution per box | Note |
|---|---|---|
| A 49 box at 8% churn | 17 | 17 contribution, 2.9:1 |
| Lower churn | 17 | doubles the lifetime value |
| Higher shipping | 10.5 | contribution collapses |
FAQFrequently asked questions
What churn rate is sustainable?
Subscription boxes commonly see 8 to 15% monthly, which means an average subscriber life of 7 to 12 months. Below 5% is exceptional.
Why does churn matter more than price?
Because lifetime value is inversely proportional to it. Halving churn doubles LTV; a 10% price rize adds far less.
What LTV:CAC ratio should I aim for?
Three to one is the usual benchmark. Below 1:1 the business loses money on every subscriber acquired.
Why is shipping such a problem?
Because it is a fixed cost per box against a fixed price. It does not scale down with volume the way goods do, and it has risen faster than prices.
Should I offer annual prepayment?
It transforms the economics — payback becomes immediate and annual subscribers churn far less. The discount usually pays for itself many times over.
Where these figures come from
- APICS / ASCM — inventory management terminology — the turnover, safety stock and reorder point definitions used here
- US Federal Trade Commission — the US consumer protection regulator
Last checked: September 2026. These are standard retail and inventory-management definitions.